WILL NEW MOON RISE ABOVE TWILIGHT AT THE BOX OFFICE?

By Catherine Karp


THE TWILIGHT SAGA: NEW MOON hits theaters November 20, 2009, further fueling TWILIGHT and vampire mania.  In 2008, TWILIGHT grossed over $191 million at the U.S. box office and launched a healthy industry of movie tie-ins ranging from life-sized Edward Cullen cutouts to TWILIGHT Barbies (not to mention some sparkly "adult" merchandise).   


Will even more fans head out to see NEW MOON, which, in addition to heartthrob vampires, offers werewolves and a heated love triangle?  Or will the next installment of THE TWILIGHT SAGA suffer a sophomore slump found in past mega-series such as STAR WARS and INDIANA JONES?


A look at the top twenty U.S. box office hits of all time (as of November 10, 2009) offers hope.  Six of those top movies are the second installments of a series, including the second-highest-grossing film, THE DARK KNIGHT, and the fourth highest, SHREK 2.  Other sophomore top grossers are PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST, TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN, SPIDER-MAN 2, and LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS.  Of all six films, only SPIDER-MAN 2 got outranked by its predecessor, 2002's SPIDER-MAN.


So, the odds of NEW MOON outdoing TWILIGHT sound promising…unless you look at the series to which TWILIGHT gets most frequently compared: HARRY POTTER.  In the case of that particular franchise, the first film, HARRY POTTER AND THE SORCERER'S STONE, grossed over $317 million, whereas the second film, HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS, dropped down to over $261 million.  No Harry Potter film to date has done better than the original movie…although that statistic may change as the series comes to a close.


Even if NEW MOON doesn't surpass TWILIGHT in the number of tickets sold, it will undoubtedly lure droves of devoted book fans into theaters.  Stephenie Meyer's novel NEW MOON spent more than twenty-five weeks in the number one spot of the NEW YORK TIMES bestseller list, and online fandom of the young adult series has only grown in the year since the original TWILIGHT movie's release.  Moreover the film boasts some new blood, including Dakota Fanning and SWEENEY TODD's Jamie Campbell Bower, and magazines and fan sites have built up momentum by providing us with nonstop news and photos of stars Robert Pattinson, Kristen Stewart, and Taylor Lautner.  No one can say they haven't heard of this movie.


Several theaters will be screening midnight premieres of THE TWILIGHT SAGA: NEW MOON on November 20.  If you're interested in guiding the film's fate in cinematic history, you'll soon receive the chance to venture out amid the throng of rabid fans.  Some squealing and swooning may occur, box office records may potentially be shattered, but hopefully no real blood will be drawn.

 

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